Every major hack, collapse and crash since 2018, one by one: what happened, how big the hole was, who filled it, and what BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB and the S&P 500 did over the next 24 hours to 90 days. Includes FTX, Bybit, 10/10 and the Binance hack that's live right now.
Covid, May 2021, Luna, Celsius/3AC, FTX, SVB, Yen carry, 10/10
What actually happens
BTC path around each event
Indexed to 100 at the close the day before each event. Day 0 is the event day. 30 days before to 90 days after.
Every event, side by side
Day 0 is the event-day move vs the prior close. Later returns are measured from the event-day close. Max DD is the deepest intraday low within 30 days vs the pre-event close. Recovery is days until a close back above the pre-event close after that low. Click a header to sort.
Binance now vs Bybit, FTX and 10/10
Each event
Playbook
First 72 hours
Hacks rarely crash BTC on the day (median -1.1%). The small bounce in the first 1 to 3 days is usually a fade, not a trend.
Systemic blowups hit hard on day 0 (median -10.5%), and the deepest point usually comes later in the first month.
Watch who is forced to sell: a peg defender, a lender, a liquidation engine or a launderer.
Who fills the hole
Outside backstop (Fed, government, Jump, a rescue raise): fast V. Covid, SVB, Wormhole.
The victim pays from its own balance sheet: fine for the exchange, but the market still bleeds for weeks. Bybit, Ronin, DMM.
Nobody fills it: months of bear. Luna, Celsius/3AC, FTX, and 10/10 for alts.
Tells to watch now
First THORChain deposit from the parked ETH or the 19 BTC wallets. That's when the Bybit-style wash starts.
BNB vs BTC and any withdrawal delays. That was the FTX tell with FTT.
Stablecoin outflows from Binance and funding flipping negative. A 10/10-style leverage flush needs crowded longs.
Sources: daily OHLC from public market data, incident details from post-mortems, court filings and on-chain tracking. Small sample sizes. Not financial advice.